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The evidence also suggests that a large number of gay men are married to women.


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There are three sources that can give us estimates of the openly gay population broken down by state: While these data sources all measure different degrees of openness, one result is strikingly similar: All three suggest that the openly gay population is dramatically higher in more tolerant states, defined using an estimate by Nate Silver of support for same-sex marriage. On Facebook, for example, about 1 percent of men in Mississippi who list a gender preference say that they are interested in men; in California, more than 3 percent do.

Are there really so many fewer gay men living in less tolerant states? There is no evidence that gay men would be less likely to be born in these states.

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Have many of them moved to more tolerant areas? Some have, but Facebook data show that mobility can explain only a small fraction of the difference in the totally out population. I searched gay and straight men by state of birth and state of current residence. This information is available only for a subset of Facebook users. Some gay men do move out of less tolerant states, but this effect is small. I estimate that the openly gay population would be about 0.

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The percent of male high school students who identify themselves as gay on Facebook is also much lower in less tolerant areas. Because high school students are less mobile than adults, this suggests that a gay exodus from these areas is not a large factor.

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We can approach the question of whether intolerant areas actually have fewer gay men another way, too, by estimating the percent of searches for pornography that are looking for depictions of gay men. I used anonymous, aggregate data from Google. The advantage of this data source, of course, is that most men are making these searches in private.

Women search, too, but in much smaller numbers. While tolerant states have a slightly higher percentage of these searches, roughly 5 percent of pornographic searches are looking for depictions of gay men in all states. This again suggests that there are just about as many gay men in less tolerant states as there are anywhere else.

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Since less tolerant states have similar percentages of gay men but far fewer openly gay men, there is a clear relationship between tolerance and openness. My preliminary research indicates that for every 20 percentage points of support for gay marriage about one-and-a-half times as many men from that state will identify openly as gay on Facebook. In a perfectly tolerant world, my model estimates that about 5 percent of men in the United States would say they were interested in men.

Note that this matches nicely with the evidence from pornographic search data. These results suggest that the closet remains a major factor in American life. For comparison, about 3. In states where the stigma against homosexuality remains strong, many more gay men are in the closet than are out. How deep in the closet are these men? Obviously, it is possible for a gay man not to acknowledge his sexuality to Facebook or surveys but to still have healthy, open same-sex relationships.

But data from Match.


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  7. Many of my friends died two decades ago and my contemporaries have started retiring to Florida. The Internet seems full of people looking to do drugs. Do you have any advice? Dear Stephen: Still, there are some unusual and disproportionate challenges to aging within the gay community that your experiences highlight. Elders , an organization dedicated to helping older members of our community.

    And many of us are estranged from our families of origin, and so are only half as likely as our heterosexual counterparts to have close relatives to lean on for help.

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    Many of us lost lovers, friends and family in the depths of the H. This might also help explain why the situation is more difficult for gay men than it is for lesbians: Those who survived the plague can only be grateful — yet, like you, these losses continue to prick our hearts. Ask yourself: Are you willing to do that?